Baseball Glossary › Wins Above Replacement
Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) estimates a player's total value in wins: how many more wins he is worth than a replacement-level player, such as a minor leaguer or readily available free agent. For position players it combines hitting, baserunning, fielding and a position adjustment. For pitchers it is built from run prevention.
Formula
Illustration (made-up numbers): a player is worth 20 runs above average combined, plus 20 replacement-level runs, for 40 runs above replacement.
If about 10 runs equal one win in that season, 40 / 10 = 4.0 WAR.
The real runs-per-win figure changes each season and is set by the WAR provider.
What to Know
A replacement-level player is the kind of talent a team can add at almost no cost, such as a Triple-A call-up. FanGraphs sets replacement level at a .294 winning percentage for a team, which is why WAR can be negative: a player below that level costs his team wins.
FanGraphs' rule of thumb for position players and starting pitchers: 0 to 1 WAR is a reserve, 1 to 2 a role player, 2 to 3 a solid starter, 3 to 4 a good player, 4 to 5 an All-Star, 5 to 6 a superstar and 6 or more MVP level. An average full-time regular is about 2 WAR. Relievers are judged on a lower scale.
There is no single WAR. FanGraphs (fWAR) builds pitching value from FIP, Baseball-Reference (bWAR or rWAR) uses runs allowed, and fielding inputs such as UZR and DRS differ by site. Treat WAR as an estimate for tiers, not a precise ranking to the decimal.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is WAR in baseball?
WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. It estimates how many more wins a player is worth to his team than a replacement-level player, combining hitting, baserunning, fielding and position into one number.
What is a replacement level player?
A replacement-level player is a freely available fill-in, such as a minor league call-up or a free agent a team can sign at minimal cost. FanGraphs defines replacement level as roughly the talent of a team that would win at a .294 rate.
What is a good WAR in baseball?
FanGraphs' rule of thumb: about 2 WAR is a solid starter, 3 to 4 a good player, 4 to 5 an All-Star, 5 to 6 a superstar and 6 or more MVP level. Bench players are typically between 0 and 1.
Can WAR be negative?
Yes. A negative WAR means the player performed below replacement level and cost his team wins compared with a freely available substitute.
What is the difference between fWAR and bWAR?
fWAR is FanGraphs' version and bWAR (or rWAR) is Baseball-Reference's. They share the same framework and replacement level, but use different methods for defense and pitching, such as FanGraphs basing pitcher WAR on FIP, so totals can differ.
How is WAR calculated for pitchers?
Pitcher WAR converts run prevention into wins. FanGraphs uses FIP adjusted for park and scaled to innings pitched, while Baseball-Reference uses runs allowed per nine innings. Both then compare the result with replacement level.
Related Terms
Sources
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